Folly Marches On

"A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests.” So begins Barbara W. Tuchman's 1984 book The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam.

On January 14, 2009, Isabel Kershner, writing in The New York Times ("War on Hamas Saps Palestinian Leaders"), paints a picture of unintended but predictable consequences stemming from the devastating Israeli Defense Force (IDF) assault on Gaza. It seems that, contrary to Israel's hopes, Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian authority are losing influence among Palestinians, and Hamas is gaining support. 

Should anyone be surprised? Where is the historical evidence in the Mideast to suggest that desperate people can be thrashed into submission? The Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982 gave birth to Hezbollah. What was the net effect of that military operation on Israel's security?

“Folly, in one of its aspects, is the obstinate attachment to a disserviceable goal.” Tuchman again, page 96. Bludgeoning by whiz-bang military hardware, the "shock and awe" touted by the neoconservatives who shaped policy for Bush 43, often fails at its goal of making the enemy run for the exits. 

Military historians and strategists have long understood the concept of "asymmetric warfare," in which a force like the Palestinians, far weaker than its opponent in conventional military terms, applies strategies and tactics that allow it to keep fighting. The ragtag Continental Army of the American Revolution hid in the bushes and shot at the larger, better-equipped British forces as they marched in disciplined formation. The Viet Cong moved openly on the fields of battle, indistinguishable among their South Vietnamese countrymen. Iraqi "insurgents" have wreaked destruction with "improvised explosive devices" along the roads traveled by U. S. military vehicles. 

I'm not a pacifist, and I do not deny that Israel has often been under siege in its short national lifetime, beginning with its having to fight for its beginnings in 1948. But all the U. S.-supplied superior firepower of the Jewish state has failed to deliver the kind of security it undoubtedly wants. 

The hope for peace in the Mideast, always fragile, seems more elusive than it was a month ago. The world seems less safe. 

Tuchman once more: “If pursuing disadvantage after the disadvantage has become obvious is irrational, then rejection of reason is the prime characteristic of folly.” (380) The naivete of hard-liners is striking. When the U. S. Senate was considering the resolution to allow the Bush administration to attack Iraq, I wrote my senators suggesting that they read Tuchman's March of Folly. A quixotic gesture on my part, maybe--I don't think they read it.